2019 Tony Award Predictions!

This Sunday is the biggest Broadway day of the year—the 73rd Annual Tony Awards! As in the past, I use the term prediction a little loosely. I might note that someone I think will win even though someone else was my favorite or “should” win. Sometimes my prediction might just be who I want to win. Predictions aren't a science.

Predicted winners will be in bold with an explanation below.

Best Play

Choir Boy, The Ferryman, Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus, Ink, What the Constitution Means to Me

Prediction: It seems unfair that What the Constitution Means to Me is considered a play because it feels more like a special event and should be honored as such. This is a really strong category, but I see The Ferryman edging out Choir Boy—two shows I really enjoyed.

Best Musical

Ain’t Too Proud, Beetlejuice, Hadestown, The Prom, Tootsie

Prediction: Hadestown will win and probably should. It’s high art in the best and least pretentious use of the term.

Best Revival of a Play

All My Sons, The Boys in the Band, Burn This, Torch Song, The Waverly Gallery

Prediction: My three favorite plays in this category are all now closed—of those three I still think the strength of The Waverly Gallery allows it to carry home the Tony.

Best Revival of a Musical

Oklahoma!, Kiss Me, Kate

Prediction: Only two musicals were eligible this year, and I think Oklahoma! wins it easily. It’s definitely polarizing, but it’s so much more ambitious than its competitor.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play

Paddy Considine (The Ferryman as Quinn Carney), Bryan Cranston (Network as Howard Beale), Jeff Daniels (To Kill a Mockingbird as Atticus Finch), Adam Driver (Burn This as Pale), Jeremy Pope (Choir Boy as Pharus Jonathan Young)

Prediction: Jeremy Pope was so, so amazing in Choir Boy, and I want to say he will win. He won’t. Bryan Cranston gives and absolutely sublime performance in Network and will deservedly take home the award.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play

Annette Bening (All My Sons as Kate Keller), Laura Donnelly (The Ferryman as Caitlin Carney), Elaine May (The Waverly Gallery as Gladys Green), Janet McTeer (Bernhardt/Hamlet as Sarah Bernhardt), Laurie Metcalf (Hillary and Clinton as Hillary), Heidi Schreck (What the Constitution Means to Me as Heidi Schreck)

Prediction: This is an absolute murderers’ row of incredible performances, but Elaine May might have my favorite performance I’ve ever seen on stage. If she doesn’t win, then I’m walking out. I will be watching in my living room, so I will then walk back into the room to keep watching, but a statement needs to be made.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical

Brooks Ashmanskas (The Prom as Barry Glickman), Derrick Baskin (Ain’t Too Proud as Otis Williams), Alex Brightman (Beetlejuice as Betelgeuse), Damon Daunno (Oklahoma! as Curly McLain), Santino Fontana (Tootsie as Michael Dorsey/Dorothy Michaels)

Prediction: Santino Fontana is doing the most in his role and should win, but I do have a soft spot for Alex Brightman as Betelgeuse, whose character’s name is not spelled Beetlejuice no matter how many times I accidentally type it.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical

Stephanie J. Block (The Cher Show as Star), Caitlin Kinnunen (The Prom as Emma Nolan), Beth Leavel (The Prom as Dee Dee Allen), Eva Noblezada (Hadestown as Eurydice), Kelli O'Hara (Kiss Me, Kate as Lilli Vanessi/Katharine)

Prediction: I struggle with this one because Kelli O’Hara is truly amazing, but I don’t know if her role is enough to take it. I’ll guess Stephanie J. Block and nod in agreement at whomever they announce as the winner.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play

Bertie Carvel (Ink as Rupert Murdoch), Robin de Jesús (The Boys in the Band as Emory), Gideon Glick (To Kill a Mockingbird as Dill Harris), Brandon Uranowitz (Burn This as Larry), Benjamin Walker (All My Sons as Chris Keller)

Prediction: Take my comment about shrugging in agreement with whomever they announce and double down on it. I liked Robin de Jesús a lot, so we’ll go with him.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play

Fionnula Flanagan (The Ferryman as Aunt Maggie Far Away), Celia Keenan-Bolger (To Kill a Mockingbird as Scout Finch), Kristine Nielsen (Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus as Janice), Julie White (Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus as Carol), Ruth Wilson (King Lear as Cordelia/Fool)

Prediction: As broadly praised as Jeff Daniels has been for his portrayal of Atticus Finch, Celia Keenan-Bolger has been the real stand out performance I’d argue. I will be proven right if we determine rightness by Tony wins.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical

André De Shields (Hadestown as Hermes), Andy Grotelueschen (Tootsie as Jeff Slater), Patrick Page (Hadestown as Hades), Jeremy Pope (Ain’t Too Proud as Eddie Kendricks), Ephraim Sykes (Ain’t Too Proud as David Ruffin)

Prediction: Jeremy Pope was nominated in two different categories for two different roles this year. I can’t even think of anything I’ve done twice in a year that would make even a solid comparison point for a joke. I think André De Shields will win, but shout out to Jeremy Pope for being awesome.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical

Lilli Cooper (Tootsie as Julie Nichols), Amber Gray (Hadestown as Persephone), Sarah Stiles (Tootsie as Sandy Lester), Ali Stroker (Oklahoma! as Ado Annie Carnes), Mary Testa (Oklahoma! as Aunt Eller)

Prediction: Ali Stroker is such a wonderful Ado Annie that I think I will forever compare others in that role to her, and unfortunately for them, any future Ado Annies likely won’t compare favorably.

Best Book of a Musical

Dominique Morisseau (Ain’t Too Proud), Scott Brown & Anthony King (Beetlejuice), Anaïs Mitchell (Hadestown), Chad Beguelin & Bob Martin (The Prom), Robert Horn (Tootsie)

Prediction: The challenge of writing an original book vs. adapting something in another medium into a play are hard to compare sometimes but both exceptionally challenging in their own ways. It’s annoying to have to choose between them if you ask me, but no one asked me. Tootsie will win.

Best Original Score

Joe Iconis (Be More Chill), Eddie Perfect (Beetlejuice), Anaïs Mitchell (Hadestown), Chad Beguelin & Matthew Sklar (The Prom), Adam Guettel (To Kill a Mockingbird), David Yazbek (Tootsie)

Prediction: All of these have a lot of re-listenability, which is apparently not a word without a hyphen despite its importance as a concept. I most want to re-listen to Hadestown, so it wins based on that scientific metric.

Best Scenic Design in a Play

Miriam Buether (To Kill a Mockingbird), Bunny Christie (Ink), Rob Howell (The Ferryman), Santo Loquasto (Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus), Jan Versweyveld (Network)

Prediction: I really liked the set in Gary, but the television set up in Network spoke to the Broadcast Journalism Major in me that never lived out his television reporting dreams. I have to assume all Tony voters feel the same.

Best Scenic Design in a Musical

Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini (Ain’t Too Proud), Peter England (King Kong), Rachel Hauck (Hadestown), Laura Jellinek (Oklahoma!), David Korins (Beetlejuice)

Prediction: This is the award that makes me really happy that the team that made the titular puppet in King Kong gets a special Tony because the puppet was truly amazing. The more complete impressive set was from Beetlejuice, which should win despite lacking a gorilla.

Best Lighting Design in a Play

Neil Austin (Ink), Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer (Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus), Peter Mumford (The Ferryman), Jennifer Tipton (To Kill a Mockingbird), Jan Versweyveld and Tal Yarden (Network)

Prediction: For the reasons above—most notably me wanting to say I know things based on my major—I think Network takes the win. It’s also really well done even in its largest most grandiose moments, which certainly helps.

Best Lighting Design in a Musical

Kevin Adams (The Cher Show), Howell Binkley (Ain’t Too Proud), Bradley King (Hadestown), Peter Mumford (King Kong), Kenneth Posner and Peter Nigrini (Beetlejuice)

Prediction: King Kong had a gorilla, which I did mark Beetlejuice down above for lacking, but I do think it also had the most impressive lighting projections and display. This win will come for the parts of King Kong that weren’t the massive puppet.

Best Sound Design of a Play

Adam Cork (Ink), Scott Lehrer (To Kill a Mockingbird), Fitz Patton (Choir Boy), Nick Powell (The Ferryman), Eric Seichim (Network)

Prediction: Choir Boy should win this because the sound in Choir Boy was beautiful in its decisions and also its use of silence. I feel strongly about this, which might be a bad sign for Fitz Patton. I don’t think I’m good luck.

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Peter Hylenski (King Kong), Peter Hylenski (Beetlejuice), Steve Canyon Kennedy (Ain’t Too Proud), Drew Levy (Oklahoma!), Nevin Steinberg and Jessica Paz (Hadestown)

Prediction: The split of the Hylenski vote might hurt him. I think honestly the impressive sounds of the gorilla in the play (are you sensing a theme?) deserves some recognition, but as there will already be a special Tony, it might not matter. I think the Hadestown team ultimately wins it.

Best Direction of a Play

Rupert Goold (Ink), Sam Mendes (The Ferryman), Bartlett Sher (To Kill a Mockingbird), Ivo van Hove (Network), George C. Wolfe (Gary: A Sequel to Titus Andronicus)

Prediction: All of these shows had a lot to like, but it was The Ferryman to me that felt the most complete and should lead to a win for Mr. Mendes, who helped make a very long play not feel long, which is definitely much better than making a very short play feel very long.

Best Direction of a Musical

Rachel Chavkin (Hadestown), Scott Ellis (Tootsie), Daniel Fish (Oklahoma!), Des McAnuff (Ain’t Too Proud), Casey Nicholaw (The Prom)

Prediction: There are a lot of good candidates here, but as I noted in my review, Hadestown pleased me with all directorial decisions and also the decision not to make some choices I think a lot of teams would have done to make it more “current.” Ms. Chavkin, well done.

Best Choreography

Camille A. Brown (Choir Boy), Warren Carlyle (Kiss Me, Kate), Denis Jones (Tootsie), David Neumann (Hadestown), Sergio Trujillo (Ain’t Too Proud)

Prediction: Kiss Me, Kate didn’t do a ton that I loved, but it featured several beautiful big dance scenes and something I don’t recall seeing in a show before—someone tap danced on a ceiling upside down briefly. I haven’t tried to recreate it in my apartment to be certain, but it sure looked difficult.

Best Orchestrations

Michael Chorney and Todd Sickafoose (Hadestown), Simon Hale (Tootsie), Larry Hochman (Kiss Me, Kate), Daniel Kluger (Oklahoma!), Harold Wheeler (Ain’t Too Proud)

Prediction: Oklahoma! has my favorite orchestrations in a long time. The rework of Broadway classics into such a small band and keeping so much emotion is an awesome accomplishment.